Trend-Timed 60/40
folk rule, widely published — SPY, AGG, monthly rebalance.
Verified — real backtest on real ETF price data, implemented exactly as published, no tuning. This is a tactical-asset-allocation grade: judged on years-long risk-adjusted return, not per-trade expectancy — different rubric from Tessen's crypto grades, same honesty standard.
F
Failed at least one gate
Benchmark (static 60/40 SPY/AGG, same OOS window): CAGR +9.4%, Sharpe 0.94
✓Out-of-sample Sharpe > 0
✗No hidden tail risk (OOS drawdown within bounds of in-sample)
✗Beats a static 60/40 SPY/AGG benchmark, risk-adjusted
✓Implemented as the exact published rule — no parameter tuning
Full history (2004-08-31 to 2026-07-31, 264 months): CAGR +7.2%, max drawdown -20.7%, Sharpe 1.01. In-sample/out-of-sample split is a chronological 50/50 — the rule was implemented once, verbatim, and never adjusted after seeing results.
A Tessen Grade is a historical, out-of-sample statistical measurement — not investment advice, a prediction, or a guarantee of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Full risk disclosure